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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.