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China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as China escalates tensions following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.